The church is rather adamant that Candlemas has nothing to do with the cross-quarter day, but rather coincides with the 40th day after Christmas. Under Mosaic Law, a woman (such as Mary) would attend temple for a ritual purification 40 days after bearing a son.
Skeptics rightly point out that if the church superimposed its Feb. 2 holiday on a pagan ritual, it wouldn't be the first time. And before Candlemas, there was indeed the Celtic festival of Imbolc, meaning "in the belly," a metaphor for Mother Earth right before spring. Imbolc, a celebration of fertility and the coming of spring, is associated with the Celtic goddess Brigid. Now, there happened to be a real life, third-century St. Brigid of Kildare, an abbess and founder of a religious order, whose legend became intertwined with the goddess Brigid and whose feast day falls on Feb. 1.
Brigid was the presiding deity of the light half of the year, and her counterpart was the hag goddess Cailleach, who presided over the dark half. According to folklore, it was said that on Imbolc, Cailleach would gather firewood. If she intended to prolong winter, she would make the day bright and sunny, the better to gather more firewood. If Imbolc turned out mean and overcast, it meant that Cailleah was asleep in her den and there would be an early spring. Sound familiar?
There is an old snippet of Scottish verse that goes:
If Candlemas be fair and bright,
winter has another flight.
If Candlemas brings clouds and rain,
winter will not come again.
Our American Groundhog Day comes from the Germans who settled Pennsylvania. Their old-country Candlemas tradition had a badger as weather forecaster; finding no badgers here, they substituted a groundhog.