"I think American Idol's slipping numbers reflect fatigue, especially among more engaged, savvy viewers, because the show is incredibly boring this year," Andy Dehnart, editor of the website realityblurred.com, says via e-mail.
"The new judges brought some life to it last season, in part because they were new and unpredictable, but even they can't help the show slog through its ever-predictable, excruciatingly drawn-out audition rounds."
Recent history would suggest that those who abandoned ship will not be reboarding HMS Karaoke.
American Idol's audience peaked in 2006, averaging 30.3 million viewers per episode for Season Five (a number it is generally believed will never again be attained by an entertainment series).
The fan base has shrunk every year since then (with the exception of last season, which we'll address in a moment). Thus far in Season 11, Idol is averaging just under 20 million viewers.
Granted, that's a mob any network executive would trade her beach house for. Indeed, there's a good chance Idol will finish in May as TV's top-ranked series for a record eighth consecutive year.
But it's still a steep drop-off from the show's heyday. And there are other concerns.
"Every year, the median age [of the audience] gets older and older," says Brad Adgate, senior vice president of research for Horizon Media in New York. "It started out in the low 30s and now it's creeping close to 50."
That trend, a liability for advertisers, has accelerated this season. "Idol is not only losing viewers," says Adgate, "the median age is almost three years older than it was a year ago."
Interestingly, Idol seems to be operating on some kind of delayed reaction. Severe audience declines were forecast for the show last season because of the departure of hanging judge and founding faulter Simon Cowell.
