In Syria, fears of what comes next

By Zoe Holman

Since the beginning of protests nearly a year ago, the administration of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad has used the threat of instability and civil war to justify its hanging on to power.

To many, the rising death toll at the hands of Assad's forces in recent months has diminished the effectiveness of this argument. But others warn that the threat of widespread sectarian violence remains a real possibility should the current regime fall.

"Sectarian conflict is a very real possibility and a very grave one," said Chris Doyle, director of the Council of Arab-British Understanding. "The regime has tried to paint its fall as leading to something worse, and has thrived on this notion as part of its survival mechanisms. But after 10 months of relatively peaceful protests, increasing numbers of people believe the only way to get rid of the regime is through the use of force."

According to Doyle, armed resistance by protesters could stratify the conflict along sectarian lines as the Allawite minority rallies behind the Assad administration. Other religious communities may then align themselves with either the regime or the opposition according to how they see their own future.

"Huge swaths of the Syrian population are carefully calculating where they stand," Doyle said. While gauging political sentiment across Syria is nearly impossible, there are indications that levels of popular support for the regime have been underestimated.

A recent opinion poll commissioned by the Qatar-based Doha Debates suggests that 55 percent of Syrians do not want Assad to resign. Most of those who opposed his resignation said they were mainly motivated by fear of what might follow.

Ammar Waqqaf, a former member of the Syrian Social Club, a group of British-based Syrians that supports government-led reforms in Syria, said Assad and his administration enjoy "wide support."

"This is not only the die-hard 5 or 10 percent, but a whole range of people who do not like the opposition's approach as a whole," he said. "To many, it seems the opposition just wants Assad out at any cost, without caring about the price for Syrian unity. But do we really want to bequeath to future generations a whole devastated country, just like Iraq?"

Even those in favor of Assad's ouster acknowledge that the potential for sectarian violence needs to be addressed by the opposition.