After several days of drumbeating, it appears that the weekend "storm" is going to go quietly into the night.
"I can't categorically say, 'No,' " National Weather Service meteorologist Jim Hayes said when asked about the dimming prospects of a significant snow in the immediate Philadelphia area.
"There's always a chance."
But right now it appears that the zone of 3 to 4 inches will have a hard time fighting its way as far north as Delaware and Maryland.
Philadelphia still could see an inch or so, but any accumulation probably wouldn't come until after dark Sunday, before the storm sails out to sea.
And precipitation should hold off until Sunday afternoon, said AccuWeather Inc. meteorologist Dave Dombek, because a pulse of drier air is going to nudge down from the north. And any daytime snow would have to fight the strengthening February sun and above-freezing temperatures.
Areas from Reading north are likely to see nothing, said Dombek.
So what happened to the threat of a Big One?
From the time the storm concept first appeared on computer models, it was evident that major snow would require a Rube Goldberg-like sequence of atmospheric events.
This afternoon, said Hayes, the moving parts just didn't appear to be meshing, and the atmospheric flow wasn't in sync with what was needed to spawn a major storm off the East Coast.
The storm is forecast to take shape off the Gulf Coast, and the weather service now sees only a "modest deepening" as the area of low pressure heads off the North Carolina coast.
Almost every winter has its share of virtual storms that fizzle, but what has been so different about the incredibly benign winter of 2011-12 has been the scarcity of even threats.
In a winter like this, said Hayes, "everything is going to be a big deal."
Contact staff writer Anthony R. Wood at 610-761-8423 or twood@phillynews.com.
