Fighting for his political life ahead of Tuesday's Michigan primary, Romney has clawed his way into a dead heat with a surging Rick Santorum, the conservative former Pennsylvania senator who swept nominating contests in Colorado, Missouri, and Minnesota two weeks ago.
Now, voters in Michigan - who will go to the polls the same day as those in Arizona - could indicate whether Romney has just hit a rough patch en route to the nomination, on his second try, or whether he is a hollow candidate unable to close the deal.
With Super Tuesday - when 10 states hold primaries or caucuses - just around the corner on March 6, analysts say that a loss by Romney on his home turf could trigger a stampede against him.
Different candidacy
Four years ago, Romney decisively defeated Sen. John McCain in the Michigan primary. Then, however, he was seen as the more conservative candidate; this time he is positioned as a moderate in contrast to Santorum, former House Speaker Newt Gingrich, and Rep. Ron Paul of Texas.
Polls show Santorum running best outstate, particularly in western Michigan, home to many social conservatives, and Romney doing best in the suburbs of Detroit.
Douglas Koopman, a political science professor at Calvin College in Grand Rapids, said that Santorum, who has stressed a plan to stimulate a resurgence in manufacturing with targeted tax cuts, is attractive to many Michigan voters because the state's economy has been down so long.
"It's a blue-collar state, demographically as well as emotionally and psychologically," Koopman said. "That's Santorum's sweet spot. He's angry and sharp - and that resonates everywhere but in the Detroit ring counties where the corporate Republicans are."
Four years ago, Romney beat McCain by about 80,000 votes, and 60,000 of those came from Oakland, Macomb, and Wayne Counties in the Detroit metro area.
