I would love for her to be there, but I'd also like to be able to plan if she isn't. Is there any way to talk to her about the bailing and let her know I'm OK with it normally, but blowing off my wedding after RSVP'ing yes will really hurt?
Answer: Someone who bails this regularly has something else going on. Depression, maybe? Does she show up when she's made the plans?
As for your question, you can tell her that, but she's going to bail anyway, right?
Question: She shows up when she's the one to make the plans. I don't think it's depression because she does stuff with her neighbors, etc., regularly (we live about an hour and a half apart). Maybe it's a friendship that's run its course?
Answer: Maybe, but the fact that she does socialize with people close by supports my hunch. Following through on others' plans is a huge obstacle for depressed people - seen this with bipolar disorder also - where showing up for impromptu gatherings and things they plan themselves does not present the same obstacle.
For people who feel out of control on the inside, being able to control the terms of socializing is the difference between going out and staying on the couch. With neighbors, she can wander over when she's feeling up to it and go home when she's done. That's key.
Weddings ask a lot of a socially or emotionally compromised guest.
You're signing on to be stood up every time you make plans with her - unless she's the one who calls. But that can spare you of making a decision: If she seeks out your companionship, then you're friends, and if she doesn't, then you're not.
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