Vegas Vic: Eagles will beat the Cardinals, but not the spread

Posted: September 21, 2012

CARDINALS (+3) over Eagles: With opening odds to win the Super Bowl at 12-1, most everyone expected the Birds to open at 2-0. With opening odds of 65-1 to win the Super Bowl, no one expected Arizona to open at 2-0, especially with Game 2 at New England. One of these crews is gonna be 3-0. Double V is expecting the Green machine to squeeze out another win, but, as for the bank account, it's the home team that is spread-a-licious. The Cardinals have covered eight of the last 11 at home (73 percent), while the Eagles have burned a bunch of money, covering only three of the last 14 outside the NFC East (21 percent). And the chance of another one-point win for the Birds is unikely, so expect a win by a field goal.

SEAHAWKS (+3) over Packers: You know they love their quarterbacks up in Cheeseland. Aaron Rodgers is sitting on top of the Cheesehead throne, but another QB from Dairyland is starting to make some noise. Russell Wilson led the Wisconsin Badgers to the Big 10 title and Rose Bowl in 2011, a season in which he set the single season FBS record for passing efficiency at 191.8. Of course, that was college and now he's playing against the big boys, but with a 15-for-20 effort and no interceptions last Sunday, he seems to be adjusting well. Then there's Seattle head coach Pete Carroll and his, yes, spread-a-licious records. The Seahawks have covered 12 of 17 at home under Carroll and eight of nine as a home underdog. And if you wanna go back in history, Seattle has the best overall winning percentage (.680) of any team on "Monday Night Football," with a gorgeous 17-8 record, making this my Best Bet.

COWBOYS (-7) over Buccaneers: You have to be able to close in the NFL, and Tampa Bay has no clue how to. The Bucs were up by nine points going into the fourth quarter against the Giants last Sunday and wound up on the short end of a 41-34 score. Does this surprise me? Nope. Tampa's defense has been brutal on the road the last four games, allowing a whopping 175 points, for an average of 43.7 ppg. And that just ain't gonna cut it down in Big D. 'Boys by two TDs.

REDSKINS (-3) over Bengals: After two pretty solid efforts on the road, the Washingtonians are absolutely ecstatic to inaugurate the era of Robert Griffin III at the FedEx Field. And so is Vic. Looking for the Redskins to get an easy cover here, but the better wager has to be the over/under total. The total is sitting at 49 points right now, and with each defense allowing more than 30 points per game, this baby could go over in the first half.

SAINTS (-9) over Chiefs: Kinda hard to justify laying nine fat points with an 0-2 team, but this ain't just any 0-2 team. This is a New Orleans team that has won and covered nine of its previous 10 at home. And the Saints get to play the team with the most porous defense in the NFL, a Kansas City squad that has allowed 75 points in its first two outings. If Drew Brees can't win this one by a dozen, Double V will give up his weekly massage at the Swedish room in Vegas.

BRONCOS (+2) over Texans: Houston looked phenomenal against Ryan Tannehill and Blaine Gabbert. So what! Let's see what these guys can do against a motivated Peyton Manning, who simply owns the Texans with a 16-2 lifetime mark.

Patriots (+3) over RAVENS: The last couple of meetings have ended in a FG, and we're looking for another tight fit here, as Tom Brady lights up a Baltimore defense that gave up 486 yards in Sunday's 24-23 loss to the Eagles.

BEARS (-7) over Rams: Don't care about all the Jay Cutler chatter. But do care about St. Loo's 7-34 road record the last 5 years.

49ers (-6) over VIKINGS: Niners have covered 15 of the last 20, and methinks it would be silly to buck a 75 percent trend.

Lions (-3) over TITANS: Points for Tennessee: 23 . . . Points for the opposition: 72 . . . The Titans' recent work against the spread: 0-6.

Jets (-2) over DOLPHINS: Cut off the head (Reggie Bush) and the body will die. Rex Ryan knows how to stop the running game.

BROWNS (+3) over Bills: Buffalo looked great at home, but put the Buffs on the road and you'll find a 3-15 record the last 2-plus years.

COLTS (-3) over Jaguars: Not thrilled with this game, but would lean to the rookie (Andrew Luck) over the sophomore (Blaine Gabbert).

CHARGERS (-3) over Falcons: After a mediocre 8-8 mark in 2011, San Diego will follow Philip Rivers back to the playoffs in 2012.

Steelers (-4) over RAIDERS: Nothing "immaculate" about this game, or this season, for the Silver & Black. If you need it, buy Steel.

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