Alas, that is actually what may sink it for best picture. There are many ways for voters to honor "SLP," and really only one way to honor "Argo" - best picture. Remember, director Ben Affleck wasn't nominated. Only Alan Arkin received an acting nomination.
Plus, the Academy likes actors who direct - think "Braveheart" and Mel Gibson. Most of all, Hollywood loves itself. And "Argo" is about a CIA mission that couldn't have worked without Hollywood. "Argo" wins.
The Academy throws a bone to Steven Spielberg and "Lincoln." David O. Russell has a great chance, but voters will give him a statue for his writing on "SLP."
Daniel Day-Lewis, "Lincoln." He was terrific, though I hope people remember how great Denzel Washington was in "Flight."
Jennifer Lawrence of "SLP" is the favorite, but there is much recent buzz that "Amour" star Emmanuelle Riva is making a run.
The trend has been toward young, dynamic actresses. Just not as young as Quvenzhane Wallis. Lawrence wins.
Best supporting actor
The Weinstein Co. copped an Oscar for Meryl Streep last year by reminding voters how long it had been since she'd actually won. This year, they're reminding people that Robert De Niro hasn't won in 32 years. I think it will work, and De Niro will upset Tommy Lee Jones ("Lincoln"). What a phenomenal group - Philip Seymour Hoffman in "The Master" was as good as anyone in any category.
Best supporting actress
Anne Hathaway, "Les Miserables." Hollywood loves a hooker almost as much as it loves itself.
Best Original Screenplay
Critics say Mark Boal misrepresented the role of torture in the Bin Laden hunt in "Zero Dark Thirty" and that's hurting the picture. The alternative is Quentin Tarantino and "Django Unchained." I think people are picking up on the fact that Tarantino made a movie about a hero slave and gave all the good lines to the white guy. Boal wins.
Adapted Screenplay: David O. Russell, "SLP"
Best Documentary Feature: "The Gatekeepers"
Best Animated Movie: "Wreck-it Ralph"
Best Costumes: "Anna Karenina"
Best Production Design: "Les Miserables"
Best Cinematography: "Life of Pi"
Best Score: "Life of Pi"
Best Song: "Skyfall"