Reel suspense: People Paper predictions for Oscar night

As much as we love "Silver Linings Playbook," we have to admit "Argo" has an advantage in the best-picture race: Its plot outlines how Hollywood saved the day during the Iran Hostage Crisis.
As much as we love "Silver Linings Playbook," we have to admit "Argo" has an advantage in the best-picture race: Its plot outlines how Hollywood saved the day during the Iran Hostage Crisis.
"Lincoln" was the first time Honest Abe had a good time at the theater, and director Steven Spielberg is likely to walk away Sunday with an Oscar for his work on the 16th president's biography.GALLERY: "Lincoln" was the first time Honest Abe had…
Posted: February 22, 2013

IN MOST OSCAR races, the only can't-miss prediction is that folks will be asleep before 10:30.

Including a few hosts. James Franco comes to mind.

So let's hear it for the movie year that was 2012 - a slate of great movies that people actually care about, pointing to an Oscar night that promises to be among the most intriguing in recent history.

Culminating in the Oscar for . . .

Best picture

The experts say Philly's "Silver Linings Playbook" has no real chance. I say they're wrong. I think the movie has a decent chance to pull an upset here. It has the strongest emotional pull among the favorites, and it's peaking at the right time. Voting mechanics could be key. "Best Picture" is the only category that isn't winner-take-all. Votes are weighted, and if voters weight "SLP" near the top, while "Argo" and "Lincoln" split votes, it could slide right between them to win. And the Academy clearly likes the picture. It's the only title nominated in all major categories.

Alas, that is actually what may sink it for best picture. There are many ways for voters to honor "SLP," and really only one way to honor "Argo" - best picture. Remember, director Ben Affleck wasn't nominated. Only Alan Arkin received an acting nomination.

Plus, the Academy likes actors who direct - think "Braveheart" and Mel Gibson. Most of all, Hollywood loves itself. And "Argo" is about a CIA mission that couldn't have worked without Hollywood. "Argo" wins.

Best director

The Academy throws a bone to Steven Spielberg and "Lincoln." David O. Russell has a great chance, but voters will give him a statue for his writing on "SLP."

Best actor

Daniel Day-Lewis, "Lincoln." He was terrific, though I hope people remember how great Denzel Washington was in "Flight."

Best actress

Jennifer Lawrence of "SLP" is the favorite, but there is much recent buzz that "Amour" star Emmanuelle Riva is making a run.

The trend has been toward young, dynamic actresses. Just not as young as Quvenzhane Wallis. Lawrence wins.

Best supporting actor

The Weinstein Co. copped an Oscar for Meryl Streep last year by reminding voters how long it had been since she'd actually won. This year, they're reminding people that Robert De Niro hasn't won in 32 years. I think it will work, and De Niro will upset Tommy Lee Jones ("Lincoln"). What a phenomenal group - Philip Seymour Hoffman in "The Master" was as good as anyone in any category.

Best supporting actress

Anne Hathaway, "Les Miserables." Hollywood loves a hooker almost as much as it loves itself.

Best Original Screenplay

Critics say Mark Boal misrepresented the role of torture in the Bin Laden hunt in "Zero Dark Thirty" and that's hurting the picture. The alternative is Quentin Tarantino and "Django Unchained." I think people are picking up on the fact that Tarantino made a movie about a hero slave and gave all the good lines to the white guy. Boal wins.

Other winners

Adapted Screenplay: David O. Russell, "SLP"

Best Documentary Feature: "The Gatekeepers"

Best Animated Movie: "Wreck-it Ralph"

Best Costumes: "Anna Karenina"

Best Production Design: "Les Miserables"

Best Cinematography: "Life of Pi"

Best Score: "Life of Pi"

Best Song: "Skyfall"

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