Consumer Confidence Index

The Dow recovered from an early dip, caused by an increase in the Consumer Confidence Index, to close higher. That reversed two days of declines.

It has been the year of the shakeout for many small retailers. During 1991's first three months alone, an estimated 300 retailers nationwide filed for protection under Chapter 11 of the bankruptcy code. Experts began forecasting this would be the worst year for bankruptcies in retailing since 1970. Last week, new evidence showed consumers are increasingly nervous and unwilling to spend, further clouding the outlook for the economic recovery and the Christmas shopping season.

NO CONFIDENCE IN THOSE CONSUMER INDICES Just how much confidence should Americans have in those measures of consumer confidence popularly viewed as early warning signals of changes in consumer spending patterns? Not much, say a number of economists who have examined the forecasting power of the two most closely watched consumer confidence surveys . . . the Consumer Confidence Index of the Conference Board, and the University of Michigan's Index of Consumer Sentiment. The rise and fall of these indices . . . is believed to presage growth or contraction of the nation's economy.

Consumers in Pennsylvania and nearby states are more optimistic about the economy this month than they have been in seven years, a business research group said yesterday. The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index for the Middle Atlantic states - Pennsylvania, New Jersey and New York - soared to 86.7, the highest since June 1990, just before the national recession started. The index was 77.5 in January. "The outlook is becoming brighter," said Lynn Franco, a Conference Board economist.

Consumers are the most confident in seven years about the economy's current health, but they are increasingly wary that the good times will end by late spring, a survey reported yesterday. The Conference Board's measure of sentiment on current business conditions rose to 131 in November, its highest level since 1989. It was a 6.4-point gain from October and an encouraging sign for merchants hoping for brisk holiday sales. However, consumers' outlook for the next six month wasn't as rosy, with the Board's gauge of expectations for the future dipping more than 4 points to 91.4 percent in November.

Consumer confidence fell in January to its lowest level in nearly 12 years, a reflection of the economy's persistent weakness and the gloomy mood of many Americans, a private research group said yesterday. The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index, which had leveled off in December after sharp declines the previous two months, dropped largely because of anxiety over future employment and business conditions. The report from the business research group was considered especially significant by economists because it showed Americans weren't responding to some of the most affordable borrowing costs in nearly two decades.

Compensation for American workers grew at a historically slow pace in the second quarter of the year while in July consumer confidence in the economy dipped slightly. Worker compensation rose at an annual rate of 3.2 percent, the same as in the 12 months ended March 30, which was the smallest increase on record, the Labor Department's Employment Cost Index showed. Economists said the figures provided the latest evidence that inflation remained in check. The report shows there is "no convincing sign" of inflation in the economy, said Robert G. Dederick, chief economist with Northern Trust Co. in Chicago.

The economy is getting better, so consumer confidence is up. Or is it the other way around? After a year and half of recession and nine months of news about financial crises, that question remains a chicken-and-egg riddle. But this much is clear: Consumers and investors are ready to embrace good news wherever they find it. Yesterday, the Conference Board reported the third straight monthly rise in its familiar Consumer Confidence Index, and the biggest jump since April 2003.

Americans' concerns about jobs and inflation eased somewhat in April, pushing the Consumer Confidence Index higher. The increase followed an unexpected drop in March. The Conference Board, a business research group in New York, said Tuesday that the index rose to 65.4 this month from a revised 63.8 in March. "Consumers' short-term outlook improved slightly, suggesting that the uncertainty expressed last month is easing," said Lynn Franco, director of the Conference Board Consumer Research Center.

U.S. consumer confidence plunged in January to its lowest level in more than a year, reflecting higher Social Security taxes that have left Americans with less take-home pay. The Conference Board said Tuesday that its Consumer Confidence Index dropped 8.1 points in January from December to a reading of 58.6, the lowest since November 2011. The index has declined for three straight months since hitting a nearly five-year high of 73.1 in October. It's still above the post-recession low of 40.9 reached in October 2011.

Frank Wilson is a retired Inquirer books editor who blogs at "Books, Inq. - the Epilogue" There is a distinct possibility that we are nearing the end of an age, an age most people are probably not even aware they have been living in: The Age of Unexpectedly. Never heard of it, right? Ah, but therein lies its beauty, the surpassing subtlety of it, as you shall see. It is, of course, as with all historical periods, difficult to pinpoint exactly when it began. Perhaps the earliest sign was a Reuters story dated May 19, 2009, which reported that "new U.S. housing starts and permits unexpectedly fell to record lows in April . . . denting hopes that stability in the housing market was imminent.

IN THE REGION Endo, Watson settle patent dispute Endo Health Solutions Inc., of Chadds Ford, said it had settled patent litigation with Watson Pharmaceuticals over Watson's efforts to produce and then sell a generic form of the painkilling drug Lidoderm. Under the deal, Watson can't sell a generic version of Lidoderm until the U.S. Food and Drug Administration approves Watson's abbreviated new drug application for its lidocaine patch 5 percent product. If the FDA approves Watson's patch application before Sept.

NEW YORK - Stocks closed barely changed in light trading Tuesday amid mixed economic news. Consumer confidence surged to an eight-month high, but home prices dropped in major cities. The Dow Jones industrial average closed down just 2 points after staying in a narrow range all day. The S&P 500 index and the Nasdaq each eked out small gains. In the latest sign of a bumpy recovery in the housing market, home prices fell in 19 of the 20 cities tracked by the Standard & Poor's/Case-Shiller index, which does not include Philadelphia.

NEW YORK - Rising prices at the gas pump and in grocery aisles are starting to crimp shoppers' outlook, a new survey showed. The Conference Board said Tuesday its Consumer Confidence Index fell sharply from a three-year high in February, reversing five straight months of improvement. The decline raises questions about Americans' ability and willingness to spend in coming months. The index fell more than expected to 63.4 from 72.0 in February. Economists expected 65.4, according to FactSet.

The economy is getting better, so consumer confidence is up. Or is it the other way around? After a year and half of recession and nine months of news about financial crises, that question remains a chicken-and-egg riddle. But this much is clear: Consumers and investors are ready to embrace good news wherever they find it. Yesterday, the Conference Board reported the third straight monthly rise in its familiar Consumer Confidence Index, and the biggest jump since April 2003.

Confident and consumer are two words that just don't belong together these days. Research released by a private group yesterday, and interviews with people taking a break at Center City's Liberty Place this week, bear out the deep concern people are feeling about their money. The Conference Board said yesterday that consumer confidence plunged in October to its lowest level since the measuring started in 1967, as layoffs and falling stock and home prices gave consumers plenty to worry about.

A wave of government and private statistics released yesterday offered a bewildering view of the state of the U.S. economy. A Commerce Department report said shoppers in June raised spending at the slowest pace in nine months as high gasoline prices and fallout from the housing slump made people think twice about making purchases. But a separate report said consumer confidence hit a six-year high in July. The Conference Board said Americans shrugged off falling home prices to focus on a healthy jobs market.