Conventional Wisdom

During every presidential campaign, a lot of assumptions, predictions and statements of alleged fact get made about what's happening among the public. Then the election itself comes along, and the American people set everybody straight. This year was no exception. In the weeks leading up to Nov. 2, academics and political strategists often opined that social issues, such as abortion and gay marriage, would be secondary concerns. Such issues matter most, they concluded, when the nation is not at war and when the economy is humming.

1. Which of the following convention centers make money for their respective cities? a. Las Vegas b. Chicago c. Washington d. None of the above 2. How many existing jobs and businesses will be forced to leave the Reading Terminal area? a. 3 businesses and 4.2 jobs b. 10 businesses and 100 jobs c. 50 businesses and 700 jobs d. 170 businesses and 1,700 jobs 3. What percentage of all conventions nationwide need a space bigger than our existing Convention Hall?

Now that we have almost three weeks of war with Iraq behind us, wouldn't this be as good a time as any to declare a moratorium on the invocation of conventional wisdom? Allied commander Norman Schwarzkopf already has made it emphatically clear that he has no use for such dated war jargon as "carpet bombing" and "body counts. " A man who can break with the past as decisively as that doesn't figure to get hung up on conventional wisdom, either. Carpet bombing was something the Air Force started in World War II and carried on through Vietnam.

They said it was a laugher. They were wrong. They said he was a goner. They were wrong. They said "character" was a killer. They were wrong. They said no one cared. Wrong again. This year the experts - those pundits and professional politicians whose opinions popped up over and over again - took a beating. This year, the old rules of political combat simply didn't apply. The 1992 presidential election produced three losers: George Bush, Ross Perot and conventional wisdom.

When "everybody" in the nation's capital agrees on something, it is prudent to be skeptical. Consider this column, then, as a skeptic's effort to subvert the latest conventional wisdom that the Democrats will certainly recapture the White House in November. The euphoria is based on the polls, which last week were speaking loud and clear. A Los Angeles Times survey showed Vice President Bush trailing his likely Democratic rival, Massachusetts Gov. Michael S. Dukakis, 52-36 percent in California, a state which has not gone Democratic since 1964.

Beware of the Conventional Wisdom. And yet we accept the Conventional Wisdom as though it were handed down on a tablet from on high. We would be wise to look closer. But that would be unconventional. To touch first on fun and baseball games, consider what the Conventional Wisdom says about 79-year-old Fenway Park, hallowed home of the Boston Red Sox. Intellectuals worship the place. Sports writers rhapsodize about it. They keep telling us that Fenway is the most noble, the most glorious venue in which to watch the national pastime.

From 1828 to 1888, Hiram Corson practiced medicine from an office in rural Montgomery County, making house calls as a matter of routine and delivering about 3,000 babies. But his impact was also felt nationally in the medical community. And along with his work as a doctor, he was a leading liberal advocate on the pressing social issues of his day. "Dr. Corson was a progressive in both medicine and on controversial social issues," said Louis A. Meier, a Norristown surgeon and student of local medical history.

Two years ago, F. Bartlett Moore, then general manager of the Bellevue Stratford, told a state Senate hearing that if a convention center weren't built soon in Philadelphia, his hotel might not be around to benefit from it. Moore, who has since left the Bellevue, was right. The Bellevue is scheduled to close indefinitely on Feb. 2, although there is speculation that the financially troubled hotel may reopen as a smaller luxury hotel, with condominiums, retail and office space.

Case dismissed? After all these years, that's what it comes down to? Jones v. Clinton, the sexual harassment suit pitting Paula Jones against the President of the United States, is abruptly kaput, finito, sayonara? I'm surprised. More surprised than I've been in, well . . . a little over three weeks. That's how long it's been since a military jury acquitted Army Sgt. Maj. Gene McKinney on charges similar to those faced by the President. McKinney was accused of sexual misconduct based on allegations independently lodged by six women.

Tonight's the final home game in a Sixers season to cherish. It's a season when a bunch of players became a team, and a proud region burst into a community. It's a season when fans around the country rallied to this crew of injured underdogs who don't quit. It's a season when those same fans celebrated an upset victory joyously, yet peaceably. So on this "casual Friday," folks from Camden to Kensington to Lancaster will be wearing their Sixers best: No. 3, No. 55 and others.

2012 Scion iQ: "Dude, where's the rest of my car?" Price: Starts at $15,995. Marketer's pitch: "iQ therefore I am. " Conventional wisdom: "What the heck is that little thing?" Reality: A little smarter than a Smart. Smallness is big: As the owner of an old Volkswagen Beetle, I have an affinity for small cars, and am happy to see so many choices at this scale. But the new-for-2012 Scion iQ takes things to a new level.

Can you trust conventional wisdom, or your gut, in financial matters? Not always. And in some cases, perhaps never, according to the economists and other experts at these sites on money. Brain activity. Harvard economics professor David Laibson has used brain scans to explore how people's emotions affect their decision-making. One thing he has found is that financial miscues based on convention and emotion lead to widespread problems - and cost money. In particular, in this interview with money.cnn.com, he notes that many people make financial decisions, such as selling off stocks or buying gold, based on a recent trend that is unlikely to hold up over time.

2012 Mazda2 Touring: A little bit of fun. Just a little. Price: $16,820 as tested. ($15,855 base price. A Sport model can be had starting at $14,370.) Marketer's pitch: Maximum performance for minimalists. Conventional wisdom: Car and Driver 2011 Editor's Choice Award for small cars. Reality: If you want things simple and a little fun in an economy car, then it's '2 for you. European? When I started Driver's Seat almost a year ago, my first road test was a Ford Fiesta.

Conventional wisdom had it that Republican voters, donors, and leaders are desperately searching for an alternative to Mitt Romney as their presidential nominee, and that the current preprimary process is a hopeless, American Idol -like series of auditions to find another contender who fills the bill. The ascensions of Michele Bachmann, Rick Perry, and Herman Cain were manifestations of this quest for a candidacy with excitement and energy - qualities few ascribe to Romney.

It's doubtful that any sentient Philadelphia Orchestra listener of the last seven years hasn't marveled at principal clarinetist Ricardo Morales - his nimble Ravel, cushiony arpeggios in a Mozart symphony, or his beguiling ability to float a Rachmaninoff melody over the ensemble without edging above a whisper. Classical music doesn't have an MVP, but it's clear that Morales, raised from the pit of the Metropolitan Opera by Wolfgang Sawallisch, is the best thing to happen to the orchestra in years.

As an agent, David Falk's stake in the 76ers includes a major chunk of the present (Elton Brand) and perhaps a star of the future (Evan Turner). We'll all know much more about Turner at the beginning of Thursday night's NBA draft, in which the Sixers hold the No. 2 pick. Conventional wisdom says the Sixers remain focused on Turner, the guard from Ohio State. The speculators would like you to believe there's a split in the organization, one side preferring Turner, another faction lobbying for 19-year-old Georgia Tech forward Derrick Favors.

CONVENTIONAL wisdom among present-day statisticians has relegated the individual pitching victory to the hallway closet that also contains butter churns and Micro Machines and games of Simon. And, in many ways, Jamie Moyer's performance in the Phillies' 4-1 loss to the Cubs last night serves to further the argument against the importance of a starter's record. After all, if victories were doled out based strictly on merit, Moyer's seven-inning, two-run, seven-strikeout performance would earn him one. And the Phillies' offense, which went 1-for-10 with runners in scoring position and failed to capitalize on several key late-game situations, would earn itself a rare notch in the loss column.

AUGUSTA, Ga. - On the Tiger Woods scale of one to posterity, this would have probably ranked higher than him squeaking by at the 2000 U.S. Open at Pebble Beach by 15 shots. And it might have gone past him winning his first major as a professional, right here at the Masters in 1997, by a dozen. Ditto the 2008 U.S. Open at Torrey Pines, where he had to play 91 holes on a bum knee. Yo, it could even have approached Jack Nicklaus winning his sixth green jacket in 1986 with a closing 65 as the all-timer for anyone in golf's modern-day hit parade.

Conventional wisdom has it that in the 17th century, Moliere raised French comedy for the first time to the level of French tragedy. Forget conventional wisdom. This contemporary version of Moliere's classic, Scapin, is the Lantern Theater's hilarious holiday frolic; it was adapted by Mark O'Donnell and the great clown Bill Irwin, and then Aaron Cromie, our town's brilliant puppetmeister, tweaked their adaptation further. The result is irresistible. The usual suspects are rounded up as they always are in Moliere comedy.

Here are five examples of how the year after the meltdown changed old thinking about investing: Conventional wisdom: Safe investing means adjusting the mix of stocks and bonds in a portfolio based on an investor's age and appetite for risk. Younger investors were advised to own more growth stocks, then transition as they aged into more shares of well-established, blue-chip companies and into bonds, which return less but are less risky. Stocks were expected to beat bonds handily over the long haul.