Durable Goods

Orders for expensive manufactured goods jumped 6.4 percent in December, the government said yesterday, bringing total orders last year to their highest level since 1984. The monthly increase was the biggest since an 8.7 percent rise in June and brought demand for durable goods - items such as cars and production machinery intended to last more than three years - by a seasonally adjusted $130.85 billion in December. The figures reflected widespread demand in both civilian and military categories.

Without the incentives contained in the old tax law, sales of existing homes and orders to factories for "big ticket" durable goods plummeted in January. The Commerce Department reported yesterday that factory orders for durable goods plunged 7.5 percent during the month, the biggest drop in almost seven years. The decline came despite a huge gain in demand for military equipment. Much of the economic weakness was attributed to changes in the tax law, but analysts said it showed that the long-awaited rebound in economic activity has yet to begin.

Orders for "big ticket" durable goods, bolstered by heavy demand for military hardware, shot up 6 percent in February, the biggest gain in five months, the government reported yesterday. The Commerce Department said orders for durable goods rose $5.7 billion in February to a seasonally adjusted $101.2 billion. The advance, the best showing since a 7.6 percent rise in September, came after a record decline of 9.9 percent in January, which analysts had blamed on turmoil caused by the new tax law. Orders shot up at the end of last year as businesses and consumers rushed to take delivery of items in an effort to qualify for expiring tax breaks, but January business suffered because of this end-of-the-year activity.

Orders for "big-ticket" durable goods jumped 3.9 percent in May, the government reported yesterday. Analysts said it was evidence that manufacturing, which has been sluggish for months, may be bouncing back. "There have been some signs of a manufacturing rebound," said economist Paul Getman of Regional Financial Associates in West Chester, Pa. The Commerce Department said orders for durable goods - items expected to last three years or more, such as automobiles and appliances - totaled a seasonally adjusted $128.

A drop in demand for commercial aircraft and defense goods pulled orders for durables down 0.7 percent in January, the Commerce Department said yesterday. The decline, following a revised 2.7 percent rise in December, was smaller than expected but offered no sign of a pickup for the nation's depressed manufacturing sector. "The recession is getting deeper," said Richard Rahn, chief economist for the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, noting that new orders and unfilled orders had fallen last month.

Orders for durable goods flooded aircraft and other equipment makers last month causing the monthly measure of the purchasing of big-ticket items to surge 8.8 percent in June, the Commerce Department said today. That rise reflected a rebounding from a 1.9 percent drop in May, and dwarfed commerce forecasts of a 2 percent gain. But economists caution that the durable goods index is not a wholly reliable indicator of economic climate. They say today's figures confirm a pattern of growth in the industrial sector.

Orders for U.S. durable goods rose more than forecast, while consumer confidence and home prices fell, indicating business investment held up as other parts of the economy weakened. The 5.2 percent increase in demand in December for computers, aircraft and other items made to last several years was the biggest in five months, the Commerce Department said yesterday in Washington. Separately, a gauge of consumer confidence dropped to 87.9 this month, approaching a two-year low, the Conference Board reported.

The Commerce Department yesterday reported strong gains last month in orders for major consumer and industrial products and in Americans' personal incomes. The reports prompted some economists to believe that the nation's economy is on the verge of attaining sustainable growth after the long period of stagnation. "All in all, the expansion is gaining steam," said David Jones, an economist with Aubrey G. Lanston & Co., a New York securities dealer. Economist Lynn Reaser of First Interstate Bancorp in Los Angeles agreed.

Orders to factories for long-lasting goods rose sharply in January for the sixth straight month - the longest string of gains since early 1987, the government said yesterday. But analysts said the size of the increase - 3.7 percent - may be misleading, and they stuck to forecasts that growth in manufacturing and the overall economy is slowing from the closing months of last year. They cautioned that without the volatile aircraft and defense industries, the January rise in orders for durable goods was much smaller.

New orders for major manufactured goods rose in April for a fourth straight month, the longest streak in five years, the Commerce Department said yesterday. The 1.4 percent rise last month in orders for durable goods - items with three or more years' lifespan, such as automobiles and airplanes - was the fourth consecutive monthly gain, the department said. Economists noted that last month's advance was heavily influenced by military orders, but said that the economy, nonetheless, was still looking slightly less feeble than previously believed.

Philadelphia-area users and suppliers of wheelchairs or other durable medical goods paid for by Medicare will have new rules in coming months as the federal government agency begins the second phase of a program to cut costs to taxpayers. Suppliers will have to apply to Medicare to show they can serve customers' needs and submit price bids for a particular service. Medicare will then reimburse providers using the median price of all bids in that region. Once contracts are awarded, local Medicare inspectors will help monitor compliance.

M Released today: National Association of Realtors' sales of existing homes for April. Campbell Soup. T Released today: Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index; Federal Housing Finance Agency's home price index. N.J. Sen.: Budget hearings. Earnings report: Toll. W Released today: Commerce Department's durable goods and new-home sales for April. Pa. House: Consumer Affairs Committee presentation on "smart" meters. T Released today: Commerce Department's Q1 gross domestic product; Labor Department weekly jobless claims.

A run of encouraging economic reports may mean the worst, panic-inducing stage of the economic downturn is over. Emphasis on the word may . "I think there are signs of economic life," Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Economy.com in West Chester, said yesterday. "The downturn is no longer intensifying. "The clearest evidence of that is retailing. Retail sales have turned since the beginning of the year," Zandi said. Upbeat economic indicators, including yesterday's government reports showing gains in durable-goods orders and new-homes sales, may not mean the economy has struck bottom, however.

Orders for U.S. durable goods rose more than forecast, while consumer confidence and home prices fell, indicating business investment held up as other parts of the economy weakened. The 5.2 percent increase in demand in December for computers, aircraft and other items made to last several years was the biggest in five months, the Commerce Department said yesterday in Washington. Separately, a gauge of consumer confidence dropped to 87.9 this month, approaching a two-year low, the Conference Board reported.

Sales of new homes fell in November by the most in nearly 12 years, while businesses cut back on orders for new equipment. The two government reports released yesterday suggested that two areas of strength in the nation's economy were wavering. Purchases of new single-family homes fell 11.3 percent to an annual rate of 1.245 million units, the Commerce Department said. It also reported that orders for durable goods excluding commercial aircraft fell 0.6 percent for a third straight monthly drop.

Economic reports issued yesterday on new-home sales, durable-goods orders, and consumer confidence underscored the view that a recovery is gathering breadth and momentum across the United States. The reports from the federal government and a private economic research group buttressed announcements by large corporations this week that they were seeing strengthening business and sales. The corporations include Wal-Mart Stores Inc., Intel Corp. and Toll Bros. Inc., the luxury-home builder in Montgomery County.

WorldCom Inc.'s stunning admission that it overstated its cash flow by $3.9 billion shook Wall Street and public confidence in corporate America anew yesterday, but this latest chapter in a string of financial scandals appears unlikely to topple the U.S. economy. Even as stocks initially plunged yesterday on the WorldCom news, evidence that the housing market is still booming and an uptick in manufacturing indicated that the economy was still rebounding from last year's recession, albeit at a slower pace than in the January-to-March quarter.

Three reports yesterday underscored the deepening woes of the U.S. economy and showed how broad-based the troubles are after last month's terrorist attacks. Even housing - one of the few bright spots earlier this year when other business indicators faltered - took a dramatic tumble in September. Sales of previously owned homes fell 11.7 percent. The other reports reflected sharp downturns in the labor market and manufacturing: The number of U.S. workers receiving unemployment benefits shot up to the highest level in more than 18 years, while orders to U.S. factories declined for the fourth straight month.

In Lake Station, Ind., Girl Scout troop leader Chris Gafner has 40 six-packs of men's briefs (large, extra-large and extra-extra-large), 300 toothbrushes, 30 pairs of tube socks, a box of shampoo - and a big problem. When the call went out last week for supplies for the army of rescue workers toiling in the rubble of the World Trade Center, she and her 12 scouts mobilized. They hit every business in town, and gathered enough goods to fill Gafner's garage. All over America, people collected for the cause.

ECONOMY Durable goods orders reflect continued boom Orders for big-ticket manufactured goods vaulted ahead in July, and sales of existing homes, though pinched by rising mortgage rates, still managed to post the third best month ever. The two reports, released yesterday, reflected a still-booming economy, powered by strong consumer spending and low unemployment, economists said. The Commerce Department reported that orders for durable goods - items expected to last at least three years - rose 3.3 percent last month to a seasonally adjusted $204 billion.