Economy

Stephen Mullin was Philadelphia's finance director and then commerce director under Mayor Edward G. Rendell. Mullin's company provides economic consulting for titans of business and public policy. Some notable clients include Liberty Property Trust, PennDot, the Pennsylvania Convention Center Authority, Philadelphia City Council, Philadelphia International Airport, the Brookings Institution, and the government of the U.S. Virgin Islands. Mullin also teaches urban economics and public finance at several local colleges.

I have a close friend, who along with many Democratic dreamers, predicts the economy will sink President Bush's reelection. I disagree, so I offered to make up the difference if his stock account doesn't rise 3 percent in the next six months (triple what banks and bonds are paying), but I would get any return over that amount. He declined. He may be misguided, but he's no idiot. He understands that the economy may not be great, but it is OK and surely getting better - which bodes well for Bush's political future.

What surplus?

By Matt Joyce As I slid slowly into Thomas Jefferson University Hospital's glistening, space-age MRI machine recently, preparing for a 40-minute, $1,500 procedure that would yield more than 100 images of my injured wrist, thoughts of American entrepreneurship, preventive care, and the glaring ironies of our health-care system circled through my head. Three years ago, my former college roommate, Tim Ifill, and I started a nonprofit organization called Philly Fellows. Both of us chose to forgo traditional jobs with stable salaries and benefits to build a program that we were passionate about, and that we felt would make a tangible impact on the city of Philadelphia.

WE OWE more on our homes than we have equity. We're paying ridiculously high gas prices, along with other higher prices because of these gas prices, yet we are not bringing in any more money. Five states have suspended educational loans, because the money simply isn't there. Health programs are being cut, along with programs in the arts, and others. Forty-three cents of every tax dollar is being spent on the military, with only 20 cents to health care and 12 in response to poverty.

WASHINGTON - Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said Tuesday that the nation's economy "is close to faltering" and that the central bank was prepared to take further steps to support the recovery. In a day of volatile swings, stocks came off their morning lows after Bernanke implied that the Fed could adopt additional stimulus measures in the coming months. In the early afternoon, share prices trended down again on continuing fears about the economy and Europe's debt problems - but they surged into positive territory in the last 45 minutes of trading on reports that European officials were working on a joint effort to prop up the region's struggling banks.

President Obama and Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke on Tuesday each offered hope for the nation's economy even as they acknowledged its struggles. While Bernanke called the recovery from the recession - especially for the job market - "frustratingly slow," he predicted that the economy would expand later this year. He blamed the recent weakness on high gasoline prices and the effect of the March 11 earthquake in Japan, which has slowed production of cars and other products using parts made in Japan.

While the national economy is slowing down, it still seems to be growing, not shrinking. And growth is likely to pick up in the second half of 2001, according to the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. "Clearly, the economy has slowed down," Dr. Anthony M. Santomero told reporters yesterday. But, he added, "the data I have seen does not suggest we are in a slowdown with a zero growth rate. . .We're seeing softening the first half of the year. I think we'll see growth in the second half.

The Philadelphia economy picked up steam in the fourth quarter last year, according to a study by Grant Thornton, an accounting and management consulting firm. The quarterly Grant Thornton Index of economic indicators rose 1.40 points to 109.5 in the fourth quarter, ended Dec. 31, from 108.1 in the third quarter, ended Sept. 30. The firm said it is the first time in two years that the index for Philadelphia has increased. Growth in non-farm payrolls, construction permits, and factory hours all contributed to the increase, the firm said.

Rep. William H. Gray III, D-Pa., chairman of the House Budget Committee, said yesterday that Democrats have a chance to win the White House in November, particularly if the economy goes sour before then. "If the economy is doing very well and foreign policy is doing well, the Republicans will have a leg up," said Gray, who plans to announce his endorsement of a candidate next month. He warned that the economy's "fundamentals," such as the trade deficit, the sagging value of the dollar and a downward trend in consumer spending," are so out of sync" that the chances of a recession are "50-50.

PARIS - The man charged with reviving France's shrinking economy and attracting businesses to invest is gaining a reputation for doing the opposite. As the country's first minister for industrial renewal, Arnaud Montebourg has told the world's largest steelmaker it is not welcome in France, exchanged angry letters with the head of an American tire company he was supposedly wooing, and scuttled Yahoo's offer to buy the majority of a video-sharing website. Montebourg, 50, a lawyer from Burgundy, is the public face of President Francois Hollande's plan to revitalize Europe's second-largest economy, which is in recession and grappling with 11 percent unemployment.

Over the centuries, the Irish have dispersed like clover in the wind, alighting in lands far from their native soil. This year, the Emerald Isle is calling them back to their roots. The Gathering, launched last year by government officials, is an extended family reunion of Ireland's diaspora. (Quick migration lesson: 70 million people worldwide claim Irish lineage, including 40 million in the United States.) More than 3,000 activities, held throughout the year in all 32 counties, including a few in Northern Ireland, salute the pillars of Irish culture: art, music, literature, food, drink, sports, community, and camaraderie.

Is it just me, or does it feel a little, I don't know, gross that, while we're awash in headlines about a "Doomsday Budget" for our public schools, a cadre of well-coiffed businessmen are sharing grandiose plans for yet another Philadelphia casino? How'd we get here? Seems as if, over the last decade, gaming has become a type of crack cocaine for a whole generation of politicians: With their budgets squeezed by economic downturn and an electorate all too willing to vote out of office anyone who considers a tax hike, our so-called leaders - rather than make the hard choices and right-size their governments - have opted for the quick-fix high of casinos, long-term consequences be damned.

WASHINGTON - Immigration, guns and national security are dominating the discussion on Capitol Hill, but Americans by and large are still focused on their bottom line. So President Obama is launching a series of quick jaunts around the country to remind Americans he's still got jobs and the economy on his mind. Obama will kick off the effort Thursday with a trip to Austin, Texas, the White House said. While in Texas, the president will visit a technical high school and meet with entrepreneurs.

NEW YORK - Signs of a slowing economy dragged down the stock market Wednesday. Even the prospect of continued stimulus from the Federal Reserve didn't help. Major market indexes fell by 0.9 percent, their worst decline in two weeks. Small-company stocks fell even more, 2.5 percent, as investors shunned risk. The yield on the benchmark U.S. government bond fell to its lowest of the year as investors sought safety. Stocks opened lower and kept sagging throughout the day, hurt by reports of a slowdown in hiring and manufacturing last month.

WASHINGTON - Americans shrugged off higher taxes to lift the economy at the start of the year. Government spending fell, though, and the impact of the tax increases along with federal budget cuts could slow growth later this year. Economic growth sped to a 2.5 percent annual rate in the January-March quarter, the Commerce Department said Friday. That was up from a pokey 0.4 percent annual growth rate in the October-December quarter. Consumer spending surged at an annual rate of 3.2 percent - its biggest jump since the end of 2010.

"Modest" economic growth will benefit the Philadelphia region's apartment market during the rest of 2013, with vacancy rates falling and effective rents rising, real estate brokerage Marcus & Millichap said Tuesday. Developers will add 2,000 rental apartments to the market, almost doubling the 1,031 completed in 2012, the report said. Building permits for multifamily housing, a measure of future growth, will rise by 5 percent to 3,900, comprising both condominiums for sale and rental units.

By Scott S. Powell U.S. stock prices have just reached record highs, erasing the losses since the previous 2007 peak. But the U.S. economy as measured by the labor-force participation rate, which captures the percentage of working-age people in the labor force, has just dropped to a new 34-year low of 63.3 percent. Since the Great Depression, recessions have always been followed by strong recoveries within two years of market bottoms. Not this time. Gross domestic product (GDP) growth from the market bottom in March 2009 has averaged 1.94 percent annually, the worst post-recession rebound in the last 70 years.

WASHINGTON - A strengthening housing recovery and robust auto sales contributed to moderate growth across the United States in late February and March, according to a Federal Reserve survey released Wednesday. All of the Fed's 12 banking districts grew moderately and growth accelerated in two districts - New York and Dallas - from January and early February. In the Philadelphia region, the Fed said business activity maintained a "modest pace of growth" evident earlier. "In particular, general services, staffing, tourism, and commercial real estate leasing continued to expand at modest rates," the survey said, while retail activity and residential construction in the area appeared to be slowing.

NEW YORK - As evidence of a slowing global economy grows, investors are showing some caution just one week after U.S. stocks hit an all-time high. Stocks fell Wednesday after lackluster earnings from Bank of America and an apparent drop in demand for Apple's iPad and iPhone dragged financial and technology stocks lower. New signs of weakness in Europe, where car sales are plunging and unemployment is rising, also weighed on the market. The Dow Jones industrial average fell 138 points, or 0.9 percent, to 14,618.59 Wednesday, wiping out most of the gain it made Tuesday.