Superdelegates

Selection of the superdelegates - the party leaders and elected officials chosen to bring political wisdom and experience to the Democratic National Convention this summer - is well under way, but most of them have not decided whom to support. And the ranks of the uncommitted will continue to swell as Congress finishes choosing its 253 superdelegates next week. Of the 646 superdelegates, 576 had been chosen and contacted as of midday Friday, and 81 of them were supporting Massachusetts Gov. Michael S. Dukakis.

Pennsylvania Democratic State Committee Chairman Larry Yatch has this vision: Atlanta. July 20. Third night of the Democratic National Convention. On the first ballot, the Rev. Jesse Jackson and Massachusetts Gov. Michael Dukakis each fall more than 400 votes short of the 2,082 needed to win the nomination for president. The Babbitt and Gephardt and Simon delegates have been picked clean. Delegates loyal to Sen. Albert Gore Jr. of Tennessee hold firm, hoping the deadlocked convention will turn to their man. Pennsylvania's 203 delegates, uncommitted after the first ballot, look to Gov. Casey and the state's other 24 superdelegates for guidance.

Despite Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton's solid win Tuesday in Pennsylvania, the state's six remaining uncommitted superdelegates are not yet prepared to choose a side. They are opting instead to let voters in the remaining primaries have their say. "There is not a rush for us to come in and intervene," said Rep. Mike Doyle, from the state's southwest corner. "The people of Pennsylvania got a chance to speak. I don't have a problem letting other folks have their say, either. " The state has 29 Democratic superdelegates.

It's the Democrats' nightmare scenario: a bitter nominating fight that lasts all the way to the national convention in late August, giving Republican John McCain a clear field for the summer, and leaving their own party split and dispirited even after they settle upon a standard-bearer. And there's increasing reason to be worried. Although this campaign was informative and relatively mild for most of the winter, it has grown markedly more divisive in the last few weeks, with charges and recriminations flying.

Almost without public fanfare, the biggest single "primary" of the 1988 presidential campaign - one that could settle the Democratic nomination - is already under way. It's the contest for 645 superdelegates - a prize pack of professional politicians, ranging from former President Jimmy Carter to the Democratic National Committee member from American Samoa - who are guaranteed seats at the national convention in Atlanta this summer. If the present logjam among the five surviving candidates continues, the superdelegates might have the numbers and clout to push the Democrat they think has the best chance of winning in November over the top. Most of them are still uncommitted and intend to stay that way until the final primaries in California and New Jersey on June 7. "As a superdelegate, I should stay uncommitted as long as I can," said Karen Gottovi, a member of the Democratic National Committee (DNC)

Turning their attention to Indiana, site of a crucial May 6 contest, Hillary Rodham Clinton and Barack Obama argued yesterday over how the undecided Democratic superdelegates should judge the race from here on. In addition, the Clinton campaign, rejuvenated by its 200,000-plus-vote victory in Pennsylvania, reported that it expected to have raised $10 million online in the 24 hours after the declaration of her victory Tuesday night. The money is desperately needed by an organization that, as of April 1, reported it had $9 million in the bank and owed $10 million.

Neither Hillary Rodham Clinton nor Barack Obama is going to win the Democratic presidential nomination based on the primaries alone. At this point, it's just about mathematically impossible. That's the central reality of the race now that Super Tuesday has come and gone. The contests yet to come - including Maryland, Virginia and the District of Columbia on Tuesday; Texas and Ohio on March 4; and Pennsylvania on April 22 - remain tremendously important. But the object of the game has changed: Now the idea behind winning primaries is to gain momentum and thereby impress the 796 superdelegates, most of them party and elected officials.

Excerpts from Dick Polman's blog, "Dick Polman's American Debate": This is a very sensitive issue, but it needs to be discussed. When the unpledged Democratic superdelegates finally look hard at the electability factor, they will be compelled to judge whether Barack Obama would be a risky nominee because of his race. In the end, this may not be a deal breaker. But right now it can hardly be ignored - not after what we learned in Pennsylvania, where, according to the final exit polls, 12 percent of white Democratic primary voters said that race mattered in their choice of candidate . . . and, of those whites, a whopping 76 percent chose Hillary Rodham Clinton over Obama.

IT'S GENERALLY believed that Pennsylvania voters will decide in the April 22 primary who gets most of the state's delegates to the Democratic convention in Denver in late August. But will they? The primary will elect 103 delegates pledged to either Hillary Clinton or Barack Obama, and in June the party's state committee will choose another 55 to be divided between Clinton and Obama according to the statewide primary vote (see graphic). Those 158 pledged delegates, along with 29 "superdelegates" - top elected officials and party leaders who can vote as they please - will comprise the state's 187-member delegation to the party's convention Aug. 25-28.

Her prospects diminished by the primaries Tuesday, Hillary Rodham Clinton said yesterday that she's staying in the race for the Democratic presidential nomination and that she is her party's better hope for victory in November. Clinton's pledge to keep running "until there's a nominee" came as Barack Obama, his front-runner status reinforced by the results from North Carolina and Indiana, picked up endorsements from four more of the superdelegates who ultimately will decide the outcome.

The long and intense primary season ends today with Barack Obama positioned to nail down the Democratic presidential nomination within a day or two - if not hours. Once the results are in tonight from South Dakota and Montana, and even before, many of the more than 150 undeclared superdelegates are expected to choose sides, likely pushing the Illinois senator over the magic number of 2,118 delegates. Nearly 70 of the superdelegates are members of the House and Senate, and many of them are expected to move to Obama en masse tonight or tomorrow.

South Jersey Democratic Party leaders have decided they prefer backroom politics to select a candidate to replace U.S. Rep. Rob Andrews. If they get their way, whomever voters choose in the June 3 Democratic primary will become a placeholder for the person that party officials actually put on the general election ballot. That's atrocious, and voters ought to signal their unwillingness to go along with the scheme by refusing to vote for the party's designated placeholder, Camille Andrews, the congressman's wife.

With the presidential primary season winding down, Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton scored a sweeping victory in Kentucky yesterday even as Sen. Barack Obama, the easy victor in Oregon, reached what he called a milestone along the road to the Democratic nomination. Speaking in Iowa, site of the stunning caucus victory that gave his candidacy liftoff 4 1/2 months ago, Obama hailed all that his campaign had accomplished and stopped just short of anointing himself the nominee. "Tonight, in the fullness of spring, with the help of those who stood up from Portland to Louisville, we have returned to Iowa with a majority of delegates elected by the American people," Obama said in Des Moines, "and you have put us within reach of the Democratic nomination for president of the United States of America.

Clinton's big win After Hillary Clinton trounced Barack Obama in West Virginia, the superdelegates and the Democratic National Committee should wise up and see that she is the only candidate who can beat John McCain ("Clinton wins big in W. Va.," May 14). West Virginia is a microcosm of the voters needed for the Democrats to win in November. And Clinton continues to win swing states such as Ohio and Florida, as well as big states such as Pennsylvania, Massachusetts and New Jersey, with their large numbers of Electoral College votes.

Sen. Barack Obama worked the House floor yesterday as if it were an aldermanic district in his hometown of Chicago, shaking hands, patting backs and giving hugs as he searched for superdelegates to lock up the Democratic presidential nomination. It was a smart move: About one-third of the party's 260-plus undeclared superdelegates are members of Congress, and they were a captive - and starstruck - audience yesterday, gathered in the Capitol for a series of votes. "You go where the votes are," said Rep. Robert A. Brady, the Philadelphia Democratic chairman, who sparked the mob scene by suggesting that Obama pop over for a visit.

Her prospects diminished by the primaries Tuesday, Hillary Rodham Clinton said yesterday that she's staying in the race for the Democratic presidential nomination and that she is her party's better hope for victory in November. Clinton's pledge to keep running "until there's a nominee" came as Barack Obama, his front-runner status reinforced by the results from North Carolina and Indiana, picked up endorsements from four more of the superdelegates who ultimately will decide the outcome.

Sen. Barack Obama went a long way toward wrapping up the Democratic nomination for president Tuesday night. By winning big in North Carolina and only narrowly losing in Indiana, Obama showed his resilience. He bounced back from his loss to Sen. Hillary Clinton in Pennsylvania, boosting his lead in the popular vote and in pledged delegates. Clinton has nearly run out of time and money. Since winning Pennsylvania, she has lent her campaign $6.4 million. She doesn't have to drop out of the race, as party elder George McGovern urged yesterday.

Paul Gipson, president of Steelworkers Local 6787, introduced Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton at the union hall as the Democrat with the "testicular fortitude" to make tough decisions in the White House. And just the day before, North Carolina Gov. Mike Easley had endorsed Clinton in Raleigh, calling her a fighter "who makes Rocky Balboa look like a pansy. " Both men tested the boundaries of campaign-speech propriety this week, but they were also on message: Hillary is strong.

Excerpts from Dick Polman's blog, "Dick Polman's American Debate": This is a very sensitive issue, but it needs to be discussed. When the unpledged Democratic superdelegates finally look hard at the electability factor, they will be compelled to judge whether Barack Obama would be a risky nominee because of his race. In the end, this may not be a deal breaker. But right now it can hardly be ignored - not after what we learned in Pennsylvania, where, according to the final exit polls, 12 percent of white Democratic primary voters said that race mattered in their choice of candidate . . . and, of those whites, a whopping 76 percent chose Hillary Rodham Clinton over Obama.

Forget the debate over the war in Iraq, the economy, or health-care plans. The candidates' handlers and surrogates certainly have. These days, the battle between Barack Obama and Hillary Rodham Clinton is mostly about electability, about who has the better chance to win in the fall. And both sides have an argument to make - having to do with the electoral map, among other things - which hasn't always been the case. For much of the campaign for the Democratic presidential nomination, electability was Obama's strong suit.